Q3 2009 MSA Foreclosure Report

AS SOME TOP METRO FORECLOSURE ACTIVITY RATES DECREASE, NEW FORECLOSURE HOT SPOTS EMERGE IN Q3 2009

Las Vegas, Merced and Cape Coral-Fort Myers Register Top Metro Foreclosure Rates;

High Foreclosure Rates Spreading to New Metros in Several States

IRVINE, Calif. – Oct. 28, 2009 – RealtyTrac® (www.realtytrac.com), the leading online marketplace for foreclosure properties, today released its Q3 2009 Metropolitan Foreclosure Market Report, which shows that cities in California, Florida and Nevada accounted for the 10 highest foreclosure rates in the third quarter among metro areas with a population of 200,000 or more.

But five of those Top 10 metro areas reported decreasing foreclosure activity from the third quarter of 2008, while many other metro areas with Top 50 foreclosure rates reported sharp increases in foreclosure activity.

“Rising unemployment and a new variety of mortgage resets continued to gradually shift the nation’s foreclosure epicenters in the third quarter away from the hot spots of the last two years and toward some metro areas that had avoided the brunt of the first foreclosure wave,” said James J. Saccacio, chief executive officer of RealtyTrac. “While toxic subprime mortgages drove much of that first wave of foreclosures, high unemployment and exotic Alt-A Option ARMs are spreading the foreclosure flood to more metro areas in 2009.”

New foreclosure hot spots flare up

Among the top 50 metro foreclosure rates, the three biggest year-over-year increases were in Boise City-Nampa, Idaho, and Provo-Orem and Salt Lake City in Utah. In several states the largest increases were posted in cities not previously a focal point for foreclosure activity. The Chico metro area posted the biggest year-over-year increase in California, with foreclosure activity up 98 percent from the third quarter of 2008. The medium-sized metro about 100 miles north of Sacramento had a 12.8 percent unemployment rate in August, above the state and national averages.

A similar trend was seen in cities like Reno-Sparks, Nev., with an 80 percent year-over-year increase in foreclosure activity, Prescott, Ariz., with a 77 percent increase, Jacksonville, Fla., with a 64 percent increase, Rockford, Ill., with a 64 percent increase, and Lansing-East Lansing, Mich., with a 41 percent increase.

Top metro foreclosure rates

Las Vegas posted the nation’s highest metro foreclosure rate, with 5.13 percent (one in 20) of its housing units receiving a foreclosure filing during the quarter — nearly seven times the national average. A total of 40,408 Las Vegas properties received a foreclosure filing during the quarter, an increase of nearly 9 percent from the previous quarter and an increase of nearly 54 percent from the third quarter of 2008.

Despite a 13 percent decrease in foreclosure activity from the previous quarter, Merced, Calif., posted the nation’s second highest foreclosure rate, with 3.72 percent (one in 27) of its housing units receiving a foreclosure filing during the third quarter. A total of 3,092 Merced properties received a foreclosure filing during the quarter, down 11 percent from the third quarter of 2008.

Foreclosure activity in the Cape Coral-Fort Myers metro area in Florida also decreased from the previous quarter and from the third quarter of 2008, but the metro area still registered the nation’s third highest metro foreclosure rate — with 3.67 percent (one in 27) of its housing units receiving a foreclosure filing during the quarter. A total of 13,206 Cape Coral-Fort Myers properties received a foreclosure filing during the quarter, a decrease of 5 percent from the previous quarter and down 2 percent from the third quarter of 2008.

Other metro areas in the top 10 were the California cities of Stockton (3.53 percent), Modesto (3.39 percent), Riverside-San Bernardino (3.37 percent), Bakersfield (2.88 percent), and Vallejo-Fairfield (2.85 percent), along with the Reno-Sparks metro area in Nevada (2.67 percent) and the Florida metro areas of Port St. Lucie (2.63 percent) and Orlando-Kissimmee (2.57 percent).

Report methodology

The RealtyTrac U.S. Foreclosure Market Report provides a count of the total number of properties with at least one foreclosure filing reported during the third quarter of 2009. Data is also available at the individual county level and MSA level. Data is collected from more than 2,200 counties nationwide, and those counties account for more than 90 percent of the U.S. population. RealtyTrac’s report incorporates documents filed in all three phases of foreclosure: Default — Notice of Default (NOD) and Lis Pendens (LIS); Auction — Notice of Trustee Sale and Notice of Foreclosure Sale (NTS and NFS); and Real Estate Owned, or REO properties (that have been foreclosed on and repurchased by a bank). If more than one foreclosure document is filed against a property during the quarter, only the most recent filing is counted in the report.

U.S. Metro Foreclosure Market Data – Q3 2009


























About RealtyTrac Inc.

RealtyTrac (www.realtytrac.com) is the leading online marketplace of foreclosure properties, with more than 1.5 million default, auction and bank-owned listings from over 2,200 U.S. counties, along with detailed property, loan and home sales data. Hosting more than 3 million unique monthly visitors, RealtyTrac provides innovative technology solutions and practical education resources to facilitate buying, selling and investing in real estate. RealtyTrac’s foreclosure data has also been used by the Federal Reserve, FBI, U.S. Senate Joint Economic Committee and Banking Committee, U.S. Treasury Department, and numerous state housing and banking departments to help evaluate foreclosure trends and address policy issues related to foreclosures.




Disclaimer:This is a personal web site, reflecting the opinions of its author. It is not a production of my employer, and it is unaffiliated with any NASD broker/dealer. Statements on this site do not represent the views or policies of anyone other than myself. The information on this site is provided for discussion purposes only, and are not investing recommendations. Under no circumstances does this information represent a recommendation to buy or sell securities.

Charleston and Boeing

A grand slam occurred yesterday in Charleston,SC not in the Bronx during the first game of the World Series with the announcement of the Boeing Plant coming to N. Charleston.

If you want to read all the stories about this deal just go to:
Post and Courier "Boeing Edition"

The economic impact the new Boeing Plant will have on the Lowcountry and SC is huge. The Boeing deal will have more of an impact than the BMW plant did on Greenville 15 years ago.

What kind of economic impact has the BMW plant had on the upstate you ask?

BMW has invested $4.2 billion in South Carolina and employs about 5,000 people including contractors at the plant. According to the University of South Carolina�s Moore School of Business, who conducted an economic impact study on the plant in 2008, BMW�s South Carolina factory supports 23,050 jobs and generates $1.2 billion in wages and salaries annually within the state. In addition, the total economic output associated with BMW�s annual economic activities is more than $8.8 billion in South Carolina.

During an economic period where Charleston and the state of SC have been hit hard by the recession the Boeing announcement yesterday really gives the Lowcountry a shot in the arm of economic adrenaline that will be worth billions in the years to come.

The Boeing plant will help our local economy in so many ways I can not even begin to quantify it. Not only are we talking about thousands of much needed jobs but also a trickle down economic effect that will help local businesses in every sector especially real estate.

It is very refreshing to be able to write about some positive economic news for my beloved Charleston. There are still challenges that lay ahead for our local economy but the Boeing announcement is going to result in a paradign shift for the Charleston economy.

Congratulations Charleston, the state of SC and Boeing!




Disclaimer:This is a personal web site, reflecting the opinions of its author. It is not a production of my employer, and it is unaffiliated with any NASD broker/dealer. Statements on this site do not represent the views or policies of anyone other than myself. The information on this site is provided for discussion purposes only, and are not investing recommendations. Under no circumstances does this information represent a recommendation to buy or sell securities.

September and Q3 Foreclosure Report

U.S. Foreclosure Activity Sets New Quarterly Record, Up 23 Percent From Q3 2008


IRVINE, Calif. – Oct. 15, 2009 — RealtyTrac® (www.realtytrac.com), the leading online marketplace for foreclosure properties, today released its U.S. Foreclosure Market Report™ for Q3 2009, which shows that foreclosure filings — default notices, scheduled auctions and bank repossessions — were reported on 937,840 properties in the third quarter, a 5 percent increase from the previous quarter and an increase of nearly 23 percent from Q3 2008. One in every 136 U.S. housing units received a foreclosure filing during the quarter — the highest quarterly foreclosure rate since RealtyTrac began issuing its report in the first quarter of 2005.

Foreclosure filings were reported on 343,638 properties in September, a 4 percent decrease from the previous month but a 29 percent increase from September 2008. Despite the monthly decrease, September’s total was still the third highest monthly total since the RealtyTrac report began in January 2005, behind only July and August of this year.

“Bank repossessions, or REOs, jumped 21 percent from the second quarter to the third quarter, corresponding to jumps in defaults and scheduled auctions in the previous two quarters,” said James J. Saccacio, chief executive officer of RealtyTrac. “REO activity increased from the previous quarter in all but two states and the District of Columbia, indicating that lenders may be starting to work through some of the pent-up foreclosure inventory caused by legislative delays, loan modification efforts and high volumes of distressed properties.”

Nevada, Arizona, California post top state foreclosure rates in third quarter

Nevada continued to document the nation’s highest state foreclosure rate in the third quarter, with one in 23 housing units receiving a foreclosure filing — nearly six times the national average. Foreclosure filings were reported on 47,925 Nevada properties during the quarter, an increase of nearly 10 percent from the previous quarter and an increase of nearly 59 percent from the third quarter of 2008. Nevada REO activity in the third quarter increased 29 percent from the previous quarter and scheduled auctions increased 26 percent from the previous quarter, but defaults decreased 8 percent from the previous quarter.

Arizona posted the nation’s second highest state foreclosure rate in the third quarter, with one in every 53 housing units receiving a foreclosure filing, and California posted the nation’s third highest state foreclosure rate, also with one in every 53 housing units receiving a foreclosure filing during the quarter.

Other states with foreclosure rates ranking among the top 10 in the third quarter were Florida, Idaho, Utah, Georgia, Michigan, Colorado and Illinois.

Six states account for more than 60 percent of nation’s third quarter total

California, Florida, Arizona, Nevada, Illinois and Michigan accounted for 62 percent of the nation’s total foreclosure activity in the third quarter, with 579,541 properties receiving foreclosure filings in the six states combined.

With 250,054 properties receiving foreclosure filings during the quarter, California accounted for nearly 27 percent of the nation’s total. The state’s foreclosure activity decreased nearly 2 percent from the previous quarter thanks to a 10 percent drop in default notices, but scheduled auctions increased 4 percent from the previous quarter and REOs increased 12 percent from the previous quarter.

Florida foreclosure activity decreased less than 1 percent from the previous quarter, but the state still posted the second highest foreclosure activity total for the third quarter. Foreclosure filings were reported on 156,924 Florida properties, a 23 percent increase from Q3 2008. Default notices in Florida decreased 6 percent from the previous quarter while scheduled auctions increased 5 percent from the previous quarter and REOs increased 16 percent from the previous quarter.

Arizona posted the nation’s third highest foreclosure activity total in the third quarter, with 50,342 properties receiving a foreclosure filing during the quarter — a 5 percent increase from the previous quarter and a 25 percent increase from Q3 2008.

Nevada posted the nation’s fourth highest foreclosure activity total, with 47,925 properties receiving a foreclosure filing in the third quarter, followed by Illinois, with 37,270 properties receiving a foreclosure filing, and Michigan, with 37,026 properties receiving a foreclosure filing. All three states reported increasing foreclosure activity from the previous quarter and from Q3 2008.

Other states with foreclosure activity totals among the nation’s 10 highest were Georgia (33,385), Texas (29,838), Ohio (29,645), and New Jersey (18,108).

Report methodology

The RealtyTrac U.S. Foreclosure Market Report provides a count of the total number of properties with at least one foreclosure filing reported during the month or quarter — broken out by type of filing at the state and national level. Data is also available at the individual county level for both Q1 2009 and March 2009. Data is collected from more than 2,200 counties nationwide, and those counties account for more than 90 percent of the U.S. population. RealtyTrac’s report incorporates documents filed in all three phases of foreclosure: Default — Notice of Default (NOD) and Lis Pendens (LIS); Auction — Notice of Trustee Sale and Notice of Foreclosure Sale (NTS and NFS); and Real Estate Owned, or REO properties (that have been foreclosed on and repurchased by a bank). If more than one foreclosure document is filed against a property during the month or quarter, only the most recent filing is counted in the report.









Disclaimer:This is a personal web site, reflecting the opinions of its author. It is not a production of my employer, and it is unaffiliated with any NASD broker/dealer. Statements on this site do not represent the views or policies of anyone other than myself. The information on this site is provided for discussion purposes only, and are not investing recommendations. Under no circumstances does this information represent a recommendation to buy or sell securities.

July 2009 MSA Foreclosure Market Report

U.S. FORECLOSURE ACTIVITY INCREASES 7 PERCENT IN JULY ACCORDING TO REALTYTRAC® U.S. FORECLOSURE MARKET REPORT

U.S. Foreclosure Activity Up 32 Percent from July 2008

Over 360,000 Households Receive Foreclosure Filings, Setting New Record


IRVINE, Calif. – August 13, 2009 – RealtyTrac® (www.realtytrac.com), the leading online marketplace for foreclosure properties, today released its July 2009 U.S. Foreclosure Market Report™, which shows foreclosure filings — default notices, scheduled auctions and bank repossessions — were reported on 360,149 U.S. properties during the month, an increase of nearly 7 percent from the previous month and an increase of 32 percent from July 2008. The report also shows that one in every 355 U.S. housing units received a foreclosure filing in July.

“July marks the third time in the last five months where we’ve seen a new record set for foreclosure activity,” noted James J. Saccacio, chief executive officer of RealtyTrac. “Despite continued efforts by the federal government and state governments to patch together a safety net for distressed homeowners, we’re seeing significant growth in both the initial notices of default and in the bank repossessions.”

Nevada, California, Arizona post top state foreclosure rates

For the 31st consecutive month Nevada documented the nation’s highest state foreclosure rate, with one in every 56 housing units receiving a foreclosure filing in July — more than six times the national average. Initial default notices (NOD) in Nevada decreased 18 percent from the previous month, likely the result of a new state law requiring lenders to offer mediation to homeowners facing foreclosure. The law took effect July 1. Meanwhile, scheduled auctions (NTS) and bank repossessions (REO) in Nevada both increased more than 20 percent from the previous month, boosting overall foreclosure activity in the state by 4 percent on a month-over-month basis.

Initial defaults (NOD) in California spiked 15 percent from the previous month, and the state registered the nation’s second highest state foreclosure rate for the third month in a row. One in every 123 California housing units received a foreclosure filing in July, nearly three times the national average. Scheduled auctions (NTS) in California were down 1 percent from the previous month, but bank repossessions (REO) were up 4 percent — leaving overall foreclosure activity up nearly 7 percent on a month-over-month basis.

One in every 135 Arizona housing units received a foreclosure filing in July, the nation’s third highest state foreclosure rate and more than 2.5 times the national average. Scheduled auctions (NTS), the first public record in the Arizona foreclosure process, jumped 25 percent from the previous month while bank repossessions stayed flat.

Other states with foreclosure rates ranking among the nation’s 10 highest were Florida, Utah, Idaho, Georgia, Illinois, Colorado and Oregon.

Four states account for more than half of total foreclosure activity

The top four state foreclosure activity totals in July were reported by California, with 108,104 properties receiving a foreclosure filing; Florida, with 56,486 properties receiving a foreclosure filing; Arizona, with 19,694 properties receiving a foreclosure filing; and Nevada, with 19,535 properties receiving a foreclosure filing. Together these four states accounted for nearly 57 percent of the nation’s total foreclosure activity.

Although Florida bank repossessions (REO) decreased 8 percent from the previous month, the state’s overall foreclosure activity was still up 7 percent from the previous month because of a 9 percent month-over-month increase in both initial default notices (LIS) and scheduled auctions (NFS).

Illinois registered the fifth highest state foreclosure activity total, with 14,524 properties receiving a foreclosure filing during the month. Overall foreclosure activity in Illinois increased nearly 35 percent from the previous month, boosted by an 86 percent surge in default notices (LIS), which bounced back from low levels in May and June. A state law enacted April 5 gave delinquent borrowers an extension of up to 90 days before the start of the foreclosure process.

Other states with totals among the 10 highest in the country were Texas (12,077), Georgia (11,136), Ohio (11,021), Michigan (8,257) and New Jersey (6,467).

Foreclosure activity in Michigan dropped 39 percent from the previous month, mostly due to a 66 percent decrease in scheduled auctions (NTS. A state law that took effect July 6 requires lenders — before scheduling a foreclosure auction — to provide delinquent borrowers a uniform default notice with contact information for approved housing counselors who can assist in loan modification. The law freezes foreclosure proceedings an extra 90 days for homeowners who commit to work on a loan modification plan.

Four states dominate top 10 metro foreclosure rates

Foreclosure filings were reported on 16,798 Las Vegas properties in July, one in every 47 housing units — more than 7.5 times the national average and the highest foreclosure rate among metro areas with a population of at least 200,000. The city’s foreclosure activity increased nearly 6 percent from the previous month and 89 percent from July 2008.

Seven California metro areas documented foreclosure rates among the top 10 in July. Stockton posted the nation’s second highest metro foreclosure rate — one in every 62 housing units received a foreclosure filing — followed by Modesto at No. 3 (one in 63), Merced at No. 5 (one in 66), Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario at No. 6 (one in 67), Bakersfield at No. 7 (one in 76), Vallejo-Fairfield at No. 8 (one in 83), and Sacramento-Arden-Arcade-Roseville at No. 10 (one in 105).

Other cities with top 10 metro foreclosure rates were Cape Coral-Fort Myers, Fla., at No. 4, with one in every 64 housing units receiving a foreclosure filing, and Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, Ariz., at No. 9, with one in every 103 housing units receiving a foreclosure filing.

Report methodology

The RealtyTrac U.S. Foreclosure Market Report provides a count of the total number of properties with at least one foreclosure filing reported during the month — broken out by type of filing at the state and national level. Data is also available at the individual county level. Data is collected from more than 2,200 counties nationwide, and those counties account for more than 90 percent of the U.S. population. RealtyTrac’s report incorporates documents filed in all three phases of foreclosure: Default — Notice of Default (NOD) and Lis Pendens (LIS); Auction — Notice of Trustee Sale and Notice of Foreclosure Sale (NTS and NFS); and Real Estate Owned, or REO properties (that have been foreclosed on and repurchased by a bank). If more than one foreclosure document is filed against a property during the month, only the most recent filing is counted in the report. The report also checks if the same type of document was filed against a property in a previous month. If so, and if that previous filing occurred within the estimated foreclosure timeframe for the state the property is in, the report does not count the property in the current month.

U.S. Foreclosure Market Data by State – July 2009

























Disclaimer:This is a personal web site, reflecting the opinions of its author. It is not a production of my employer, and it is unaffiliated with any NASD broker/dealer. Statements on this site do not represent the views or policies of anyone other than myself. The information on this site is provided for discussion purposes only, and are not investing recommendations. Under no circumstances does this information represent a recommendation to buy or sell securities.

Mid Year 2009 Foreclosure Market Report

1.9 MILLION FORECLOSURE FILINGS REPORTED ON MORE THAN

1.5 MILLION U.S. PROPERTIES IN FIRST HALF OF 2009


U.S. Foreclosure Activity Up 11 Percent in Q2 to Highest Quarterly Total on Record

June Marks Fourth Straight Month with More Than 300,000 Properties with Filings


IRVINE, Calif. – July 16, 2009 – RealtyTrac® (www.realtytrac.com), the leading online marketplace for foreclosure properties, today released its Midyear 2009 U.S. Foreclosure Market Report, which shows a total of 1,905,723 foreclosure filings — default notices, auction sale notices and bank repossessions — were reported on 1,528,364 U.S. properties in the first six months of 2009, a 9 percent increase in total properties from the previous six months and a nearly 15 percent increase in total properties from the first six months of 2008. The report also shows that 1.19 percent of all U.S. housing units (one in 84) received at least one foreclosure filing in the first half of the year.

Foreclosure filings were reported on 336,173 U.S. properties in June, the fourth straight monthly total exceeding 300,000 and helping to boost the second quarter total to the highest quarterly total since RealtyTrac began issuing its report in the first quarter of 2005. Foreclosure filings were reported on 889,829 U.S. properties in the second quarter, an increase of nearly 11 percent from the previous quarter and a 20 percent increase from the second quarter of 2008.

“In spite of the industry-wide moratorium earlier this year, along with local, state and national legislative action and increased levels of loan modification activity, foreclosure activity continues to increase to record levels,” noted James J. Saccacio, chief executive officer of RealtyTrac. “Unemployment-related foreclosures account for much of this increased activity, and the high number of borrowers who find themselves owing more on their mortgages than their homes’ are now worth represent a potentially significant future risk. Stemming the tide of foreclosures is a critical component to stabilizing the housing market, so it is imperative that the lending industry and the government work in tandem to find new approaches to address this issue.”

Nevada, Arizona, Florida post top state foreclosure rates

More than 6 percent of Nevada housing units (one in 16) received at least one foreclosure filing in the first half of 2009, giving it the nation’s highest foreclosure rate during the six-month period. A total of 68,708 Nevada properties received a foreclosure filing from January to June, an increase of 23 percent from the previous six months and an increase of 61 percent from the first half of 2008.

Arizona registered the nation’s second highest state foreclosure rate in the first half of 2009, with 3.37 percent of its housing units (one in 30) receiving at least one foreclosure filing, and Florida registered the nation’s third highest state foreclosure rate, with 3.08 percent of its housing units (one in 33) receiving at least one foreclosure filing.

Other states with foreclosure rates ranking among the nation’s 10 highest were California (2.94 percent), Utah (1.46 percent), Georgia (1.42 percent), Michigan (1.34 percent), Illinois (1.31 percent), Idaho (1.26 percent) and Colorado (1.25 percent).

California, Florida, Arizona post highest foreclosure totals

A total of 391,611 California properties received a foreclosure filing in the first half of 2009, the nation’s highest total and 2.94 percent of the state’s housing units (one in 34) — the nation’s fourth highest state foreclosure rate. California foreclosure activity in the first half of 2009 increased nearly 14 percent from the previous six months and increased nearly 15 percent from the first half of 2008.

With 268,064 properties receiving a foreclosure filing in the first six months of 2009, Florida documented the second highest state total. Florida foreclosure activity in the first half of 2009 increased 7 percent from the previous six months and was up nearly 42 percent from the first half of 2008.

Arizona’s 89,799 properties receiving a foreclosure filing in the first six months of 2009 was the third highest state total. Arizona foreclosure activity in the first half of 2009 increased 13 percent from the previous six months and was up nearly 55 percent from the first half of 2008.

Other states with totals among the 10 highest in the country were Illinois (68,932), Nevada (68,708), Michigan (60,786), Ohio (58,937), Georgia (56,391), Texas (49,144) and Virginia (28,368).

Report methodology

The RealtyTrac U.S. Foreclosure Market Report provides a count of the total number of properties with at least one foreclosure filing reported during the first half of the year at the state and national level. Data is also available at the individual county level. Data is collected from more than 2,200 counties nationwide, and those counties account for more than 90 percent of the U.S. population. RealtyTrac’s report incorporates documents filed in all three phases of foreclosure: Default — Notice of Default (NOD) and Lis Pendens (LIS); Auction — Notice of Trustee Sale and Notice of Foreclosure Sale (NTS and NFS); and Real Estate Owned, or REO properties (that have been foreclosed on and repurchased by a bank). If more than one foreclosure document is filed against a property during six-month period, only the most recent filing is counted in the report.

U.S. Foreclosure Market Data by State – Jan to Jun 2009















Disclaimer:This is a personal web site, reflecting the opinions of its author. It is not a production of my employer, and it is unaffiliated with any NASD broker/dealer. Statements on this site do not represent the views or policies of anyone other than myself. The information on this site is provided for discussion purposes only, and are not investing recommendations. Under no circumstances does this information represent a recommendation to buy or sell securities.

The Fed Under Fire

The Federal Reserve is one of the most powerful and secretive institutions in Washington, long considered beyond the reach of lawmakers. But now, as details emerge of how the Fed secretly doled out...




Disclaimer:This is a personal web site, reflecting the opinions of its author. It is not a production of my employer, and it is unaffiliated with any NASD broker/dealer. Statements on this site do not represent the views or policies of anyone other than myself. The information on this site is provided for discussion purposes only, and are not investing recommendations. Under no circumstances does this information represent a recommendation to buy or sell securities.

Investors Beware

Recent reports of price appreciation are comparing apples and oranges. We are extremely concerned that policy makers, banking and real estate industry executives, investors and others will use misleading home price data to conclude that home prices have stabilized. They have not.

These same influencers used this data in 2006 and 2007 to make decisions, many of which have proven to be poor decisions. It was a tough lesson, and hopefully one that won't be repeated.

This is a complex issue. Here is why:

Reported home prices and home price indices rely on a small sample of transactions that represent far less than 1% of the owned homes in an area. The rise of subprime-related loans in 2004, and the subsequent foreclosures since then, has skewed the price data significantly. There are many issues associated with the price data, including heavy discounts on distress sales. Because the bulk of the transactions since 2004 have also been in lower-priced neighborhoods, the following has resulted:

Recently reported median prices have been lower than the true value of the median home in the market, resulting in reported prices today that are far less than the value of the median home in an area.

Case-Shiller and other indices have been misinterpreted. They reported a higher percentage appreciation than occurred on most homes in 2006, and more price depreciation than has occurred on most homes since that time because their sample size is based on what has been transacting. Transactions have predominantly been limited to homes in lower-priced neighborhoods. The Case-Shiller and Zillow tiered price indices show this clearly, but this granular detail is usually too much for most news articles.

Today, we are seeing the mix of transactions shifting back to the typical neighborhood. That mix shift is causing the median price to increase when, in fact, there is no real price appreciation going on. Our analysis of 390 metro areas across the country shows that the percentage of markets reporting a month-over-month increase in the median price has jumped to 39% from 22% two months earlier. What is really happening is that people are now comparing the price on a 3-bedroom home in a typical neighborhood to the price on a 3-bedroom home in a poor neighborhood - because that's what was selling several months ago.

We also believe that Case-Shiller and others could report an overcorrection because the low-end price correction has slowed, but the high-end price correction is accelerating. If the high end grabs a large percentage of the transactions, the indices could over-report the price correction because of double counting this phenomenon.

Depending on the decision you are trying to make, there are solutions to understanding the right pricing methodology to use. This includes some relatively new tools and indices. Before you make an important decision, be sure that you understand the facts behind the pricing measures you are using.

Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting


Disclaimer:This is a personal web site, reflecting the opinions of its author. It is not a production of my employer, and it is unaffiliated with any NASD broker/dealer. Statements on this site do not represent the views or policies of anyone other than myself. The information on this site is provided for discussion purposes only, and are not investing recommendations. Under no circumstances does this information represent a recommendation to buy or sell securities.

Cap and Trade Bill Bad for Housing

Well the Kool Aid drinking liberals and 8 delusional Republicans voted on the Cap and Trade bill Friday night and unfortunately it passed in the House of Representative and now moves to a vote in the Senate. The focus of this article are the problems it would create in the real estate industry. If you think it is difficult getting a deal closed in the housing market now with the government controlling mortgages via Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac and HVCC (appraisals) then this amendment presents another potential dealkillier. Just imagine some Federal "appraiser/inspector" walking in your 30 year home checking the windows, appliances and whatever else will destroy the environment in your home before you can sell it. LOL!!!!

The new legislation that passed through the House Friday night, unread by any of the Congress people, had inserted into the bill a new NATIONAL BUILDING CODE. There is language that would have a national building code override your local and state codes.

The bill would give the federal government power over local building codes. It requires that by 2012 codes must require that new buildings be 30 percent more efficient than they would have been under current regulations. By 2016, that figure rises to 50 percent, with increases scheduled for years after that. With those targets in mind, the bill expects organizations that develop model codes for states and localities to fill in the details, creating a national code. If they don’t, the bill commands the Energy Department to draft a national code itself.


States, meanwhile, would have to adopt the national code or one that achieves the same efficiency targets. Those that refuse will see their codes overwritten automatically, and they will be docked federal funds and carbon “allowances” — valuable securities created elsewhere in the bill that give the holder the right to pollute and can be sold. The Energy Department also could enforce its code itself. Among other things, the policy would demonstrate the new leverage of allocation of allowances as a sort of carbon currency — leverage this bill would be giving to Congress to direct state behavior. washingtonpost.com.

H.R.2454
SEC. 304.
GREATER ENERGY EFFICIENCY IN BUILDING CODES
(b) National Energy Efficiency Building Codes-
`(1) REQUIREMENT-
`(A) IN GENERAL- There shall be established national energy efficiency building codes under this subsection, for residential and commercial buildings, sufficient to meet each of the national building code energy efficiency targets established under subsection (a), not later than the date that is one year after the deadline for establishment of each such target.
`(A) effective on the date of enactment of the American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009, 30 percent reduction in energy use relative to a comparable building constructed in compliance with the baseline code;
`(B) effective January 1, 2014, for residential buildings, and January 1, 2015, for commercial buildings, 50 percent reduction in energy use relative to the baseline code; and
`(C) effective January 1, 2017, for residential buildings, and January 1, 2018, for commercial buildings, and every 3 years thereafter, respectively, through January 1, 2029, and January 1, 2030, 5 percent additional reduction in energy use relative to the baseline code.

This bill would:
1. Increase mortgage costs
2. Increase building costs
3. Increase appraisal costs.
4. Increase regulations in areas like Charleston that are in flood zones and exposed to hurricanes.
5. Confuse the hell out of everyone because the gov't has no idea what they are talking about.
6. Reduce home sales.
7. Increase inspection lead times before a home can close. You think it is bad now with HVCC just wait until this bill passes.
8. Require every appraiser is retrained to understand these new federal energy efficiency guidelines. Whose gonna pay for that?

If you like "Big Mama" (The Government) placing its hand in every aspect of future business then this bill is for you. If you prefer a country that places an emphasis on "free trade" with less regulations please forward this article to your contacts so the Senate does not kill off a housing market that is desperately trying to rebound and is essential for a full economic recovery.

You can also listen below to Representative John Boehner discuss what a POS (Piece of Shit) this bill really is with regards to housing. Simply unbelievable!





Disclaimer:This is a personal web site, reflecting the opinions of its author. It is not a production of my employer, and it is unaffiliated with any NASD broker/dealer. Statements on this site do not represent the views or policies of anyone other than myself. The information on this site is provided for discussion purposes only, and are not investing recommendations. Under no circumstances does this information represent a recommendation to buy or sell securities.

Redneck vs. Car

A very angry and smart Redneck.





Disclaimer:This is a personal web site, reflecting the opinions of its author. It is not a production of my employer, and it is unaffiliated with any NASD broker/dealer. Statements on this site do not represent the views or policies of anyone other than myself. The information on this site is provided for discussion purposes only, and are not investing recommendations. Under no circumstances does this information represent a recommendation to buy or sell securities.